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Predicted number of AVs rises significantly

Juniper Research believes that ride-sharing companies and technology giants will be driving the growth

AV technology is set to accelerate over the next few years said Juniper
AV technology is set to accelerate over the next few years said Juniper

Boundaries between vehicle ownership, car sharing and rental fleets will blur

Driverless vehicles will start to become widespread in the 2020-2025 timeframe

The annual production of self-driving cars will reach 14.5 million in 2025, according to new findings by Juniper Research. This is up significantly from only a few thousand in 2020, to give a global installed base of more than 22 million consumer vehicles by 2025.


Heavy investments from ride-sharing companies such as Uber, Didi Chuxing and Lyft, and tech giants such as Google and Baidu are expected to be driving future growth, said the analyst.

The new report, Autonomous Vehicles & ADAS: Adoption, Regulation & Business Models 2016-2025, found that the market adoption of AV (autonomous vehicle) technology is set to accelerate over the next few years, driven by:

  • increasingly stringent vehicle safety specifications;
  • environmental pressures;
  • rapid technological developments.

The research found that driverless vehicles will have a disruptive impact on transportation around the world and will ultimately lead to millions of professional drivers being made redundant.


Juniper predicts that city-based taxi services will be one of the key early adopters of driverless vehicles.

“The introduction of driverless cars will result in fundamental changes to the automotive world and society in general,” says research author Gareth Owen. “And it is clear that the boundaries between private vehicle ownership, car sharing and rental fleets will increasingly become blurred.”

However, the research warned that following the first-ever fatality in an AV vehicle, the recent Tesla S accident in Florida, the AV industry must convince the public that their vehicles are completely safe.

Juniper found that a number of major OEMs including BMW, Toyota and GM are accelerating their AV development and testing programmes and now have firm plans to launch production vehicles.


As a result, Juniper forecasts that driverless vehicles will start to become widespread in the 2020-2025 timeframe, although they will initially be confined to city centres or key routes due to the need for extensive V2X (vehicle-to-everything) infrastructure.

A complimentary whitepaper, On Track with Self-Driving Vehicles 2.0, is available to download from the Juniper website together with further details of the full research.

Juniper Research provides research and analytical services to the global hi-tech communications sector, providing consultancy, analyst reports and industry commentary.


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