According to new research from Kantar, Manchester is set to see the biggest shift in the way people move around, followed by Moscow and São Paulo.
2030 will be the global ’tipping point’ for sustainable mobility in the world’s largest cities, according to Kantar’s Mobility Futures study.
Research and data consultancy Kantar predicts that private car journeys in the world’s largest cities will decrease by 10 per cent over the next decade, fuelled by the rise of the sharing economy, multi-modality and autonomous vehicles, coupled with an ageing global population.
The analysis suggests this decline will be offset by increased use of public transport, cycling and walking as citizens switch to more environmentally friendly ways to travel.
Kantar surveyed over 20,000 citizens across 31 cities about their current travel experiences and preferred modes of transport. The report also draws from a series of panel discussions with 53 mobility experts from 14 countries.
By 2030, the report predicts that these greener means of transport will represent 49 per cent of all trips undertaken within cities, versus 46 per cent for cars (which currently account for 51 per cent of trips). Taxi and ride-sharing/ride-hailing trips, along with other modes such as ferries, are expected to account for the remaining five per cent.
By 2030, the report predicts that greener means of transport will represent 49 per cent of all trips undertaken within cities, versus 46 per cent for cars.
Cycling is on track to become the fastest-growing mode of transport, predicted to increase by 18 per cent between now and 2030. Walking and public transport usage are forecast to rise by 15 per cent and 6 per cent respectively.
Thousands of infrastructure projects are underway around the world to support these shifts, including expansion of cycle lanes and bike-sharing schemes, pedestrianisation projects and public transport improvements.
Kantar projects that across the 31 cities surveyed, as many as 36.7 million city-dwellers will change the way they travel over the next 10 years and that Manchester is set to see the biggest shift in transport usage, followed by Moscow and São Paulo.
Kantar’s research found that 40 per cent of people globally are open to adopting new mobility solutions but concluded that not all cities are ready for mobility transformation. The most tech-ready cities, based on Kantar’s analysis of factors such as digital payment infrastructure, openness to sharing, autonomous vehicles and GDP, are Amsterdam, London and Los Angeles.
Kantar also evaluated 20 mobility concepts against the preferences of 20,000 citizens globally. The researchers concluded that the innovations that resonate best are those that deliver both sustainability and convenience, including Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS), mobility hubs and autonomous parcel delivery.
The researchers concluded that the innovations that resonate best are those that deliver both sustainability and convenience, including Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS), mobility hubs and autonomous parcel delivery.
Guillaume Saint, global automotive and mobility lead at Kantar, said: “The coming decade will see a significant shift in the way people move around the urban environment, with a clear trend away from car usage towards greener modes of transport.
"Technology will be the foundation for shaping a more sustainable urban future. But all cities are different – what works in New York may not resonate in Tokyo – which is why it is imperative to put the human at the centre of the research to better understand and predict future mobility behaviour and identify future opportunities.”
Rolf Kullen, mobility director at Kantar, added: “Cities around the world need to plan strategically for the evolving mobility needs of their population. For change to happen, it must be led by both the cities and the people – citizens will not act alone.
"Municipalities must ‘mind the gap’ by balancing infrastructure investment with robust urban mobility policies and awareness initiatives to gain the trust and backing of their citizens. Our research shows there could be significant political upside for politicians who get urban transport right.”
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